Letter from Buckinghamshire Council’s Director of Public Health to BASG

 

Directorate for Adults, Health & Housing
Public Health and Early Prevention
Service Director: Jane O’Grady
Buckinghamshire Council
The Gateway
Gatehouse Road
Aylesbury
HP19 8FF

Jane.o’grady@buckinghamshire.gov.uk
01296 387623
www.buckinghamshire.gov.uk

Paul Randall
Chair of BASG

Email: pauljrandall@btinternet.com

5 June 2020

Dear Mr Randall

Thank you for your letter regarding Coronavirus infection rates in Buckinghamshire. I apologise for not replying sooner.

You have asked me to confirm the following:-

• That the rate of infection across Buckinghamshire is decreasing to manageable levels (Local R rate below 1)?
• That in Buckinghamshire we already have in place in advance of schools returning, consistent testing across the County that provides results within 48 hours which is followed up by tracing?

We monitor the rate of infection in Buckinghamshire looking at a variety of data. This includes daily reported cases, hospital admissions and deaths. I am pleased to report that these have been falling since the peak in April. We are now also beginning to receive data from the test and trace programme which we monitor daily. It is worth noting that this represents an expansion of the testing we had previously so will affect the numbers of positive cases as these were not being tested before. This will provide a useful baseline going forward.

We will also be receiving data from the national Joint Biosecurity Centre that has been recently set up which will highlight any areas of concern in Buckinghamshire. We will be reviewing all the available data to identify if there is any resurgence in infections.

The R number as you know is just one measure of the likely progress of an epidemic. At the beginning of the epidemic before any measures were introduced and schools were still in session the R number was estimated to be around 2-3 i.e. every person infected passed the virus on to 2-3 other people so the epidemic will grow exponentially.

There are different estimates for R and the official government website updated today (5 June) puts the R for the UK at between 0.7-0.9. The Office for National Statistics has also published data today showing that infection rates appear to be falling.

It is not possible to calculate meaningful R values at a very local level due to the relatively small numbers involved . The lowest level that R values are estimated is for regions. Cambridge University publishes estimates for regions and the South East region is estimated to have R of 0.97 but R will vary locally. R should always be considered alongside the number of people currently infected which is why we will be monitoring all the data highlighted above.

Of course as restrictions are lifted and people mix more freely it is likely that infection rates and R may rise but this is why we will be monitoring the situation so closely.

The contact tracing (or “Test and Trace”) service has started operating and is now identifying cases and following-up contacts in Buckinghamshire. We have had reports about some delays in getting test results, and have raised these concerns through local and regional routes as issues requiring improvement. We have received assurances that any cases associated with schools will be escalated as a high priority and as always schools will receive direct input by the Public Health England teams who are very experienced in contact tracing and outbreak management. Our team will work with Public Health England to respond promptly at a local level to any potential outbreaks in schools as well as other community settings.

The council has been working hand in hand with schools and wider partners to ensure schools, staff and pupils are as safe as possible during the pandemic and will continue to do so. Sadly it is likely that this virus will be with us for at least another 18 months so we need to find the safest way we can to enable our children to continue their education.

I hope this provides you with the information you were looking for.

Best wishes

Yours sincerely

Dr. Jane O’Grady FRCPath, FFPH
Director of Public Health

Cc: Martin Tett
Tolis Vouyioukas
Simon James
Anita Cranmer
Richard Nash
Mark Shaw.